Dollar Normalized Comparison
Cumulative P/L ($)
BT scaled from ~$2.56M compounded → $1M notional
Divergence (Live minus BT)
Live vs Backtest Daily P/L
Each dot = 1 day. Green = same direction. Red = opposite.
Return Distribution (Daily $ P/L)
Day count per P/L bucket, both at comparable $ scale
Key observation: Live has fatter tails in both directions. More +$3k and -$3k days while BT clusters tighter. Discretionary intraday management amplifies moves vs mechanical backtest rules.
METHODOLOGY
Backtest ran on $1M notional, compounded to ~$2.56M by Dec 2025. All BT P/L scaled back to $1M (÷2.56x) for fair comparison. Live P/L from Tastytrade transactions with box spreads (5000/6000 strikes) and non-0DTE trades filtered. BPR = peak concurrent spread width exposure, max(put/call side) for iron condors. Bangkok timestamps converted to US ET for day alignment.